The 2025 early vote shows dramatic increases across Virginia, with a 35.0% statewide surge compared to 2021. Virtually every locality shows growth, with only one tiny locality (Norton City) showing a marginal decline of 13 votes.
Growth Pattern:
Nearly universal - 132 of 133 localities increased early voting
Statewide Demographics (2025)
Key Insight: Older voters (61+) comprise 51.6% of early voters.
Key Insight: Women dominate early voting with an 11.5 percentage point advantage.
Key Insight: In-person early voting is the dominant method, with mail-in representing less than one-fifth of early votes.
Regional Analysis
| Region | 2025 Votes | 2021 Votes | Delta | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern VA | 518,390 | 397,951 | +120,439 | +30.3% |
| Hampton Roads | 298,168 | 224,024 | +74,144 | +33.1% |
| Richmond Metro | 232,164 | 176,123 | +56,041 | +31.8% |
| Other | 167,024 | 119,987 | +47,037 | +39.2% |
| Central VA | 138,893 | 93,378 | +45,515 | +48.7% |
| Southwest VA | 148,399 | 103,943 | +44,456 | +42.8% |
| Shenandoah Valley | 93,269 | 66,727 | +26,542 | +39.8% |
Key Regional Insights:
- Northern Virginia remains the early vote powerhouse with 32.5% of all statewide early votes, but grew at the slowest rate (+30.3%).
- Central Virginia showed the highest growth rate at +48.7%, followed by Southwest VA at +42.8% - these are the regions that have surged.
- Hampton Roads and Richmond Metro both showed strong, steady growth in the low-to-mid 30% range.
Top 20 Localities: Biggest Gains
| Locality | 2025 Votes | 2021 Votes | Gain | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.Fairfax County | 221,778 | 176,120 | +45,658 | +25.9% |
| 2.Prince William County | 85,588 | 60,899 | +24,689 | +40.5% |
| 3.Virginia Beach City | 80,091 | 56,342 | +23,749 | +42.2% |
| 4.Chesterfield County | 92,621 | 69,568 | +23,053 | +33.1% |
| 5.Loudoun County | 81,079 | 60,624 | +20,455 | +33.7% |
| 6.Henrico County | 66,721 | 47,613 | +19,108 | +40.1% |
| 7.Stafford County | 26,704 | 17,414 | +9,290 | +53.3% |
| 8.Chesapeake City | 48,575 | 39,911 | +8,664 | +21.7% |
| 9.Spotsylvania County | 27,944 | 19,580 | +8,364 | +42.7% |
| 10.Alexandria City | 33,574 | 25,467 | +8,107 | +31.8% |
| 11.Arlington County | 50,640 | 42,565 | +8,075 | +19.0% |
| 12.Frederick County | 17,744 | 10,011 | +7,733 | +77.2% |
| 13.Henry County | 7,411 | 0 | +7,411 | N/A |
| 14.Richmond City | 34,726 | 27,382 | +7,344 | +26.8% |
| 15.Charlottesville City | 8,966 | 2,242 | +6,724 | +300.0% |
| 16.Norfolk City | 26,749 | 20,056 | +6,693 | +33.4% |
| 17.Albemarle County | 26,150 | 19,802 | +6,348 | +32.1% |
| 18.Roanoke County | 20,816 | 15,219 | +5,597 | +36.8% |
| 19.Suffolk City | 17,822 | 12,274 | +5,548 | +45.2% |
| 20.Montgomery County | 16,807 | 11,591 | +5,216 | +45.0% |
Notable Patterns in Top Gainers:
- Fairfax County gained the most votes in absolute terms (+45,658) but had one of the lower growth rates at 25.9%
- Exurban boom: Stafford (+53.3%), Spotsylvania (+42.7%), Prince William (+40.5%)
- Shenandoah surge: Frederick County posted a remarkable +77.2% increase
- Charlottesville explosion: +300% increase (though from a small 2021 base)
- Hampton Roads breadth: All major HR cities in top 20, with healthy 30-45% increases
The Overall Surge
The 35% increase in early voting suggests extremely high enthusiasm across the board. This is not a one-sided surge - both sides appear mobilized.
Northern Virginia Slowdown
Northern VA's "only" 30.3% growth (lowest of any region) compared to its 2021 dominance could signal Democratic saturation in the region, or that Democrats maxed out early vote in 2021 and are closer to ceiling. This is potentially concerning for Democrats if this was their base.
The Rural/Small Town Surge
Southwest VA (+42.8%), Shenandoah Valley (+39.8%), and Central VA (+48.7%) all exceeded Northern VA's growth:
- These tend to be more Republican-leaning regions
- The late surge appears concentrated here
- Stafford (+53.3%), Frederick (+77.2%), Spotsylvania (+42.7%) are all in or near these regions
Age Gap Tells a Story
- Northern VA: Only 40.5% over 60 (younger, more diverse, more Democratic)
- Southwest/Shenandoah: 60%+ over 60 (older, whiter, more Republican)
- If early vote seniors lean Republican, the rural surge matters more
For Democrats:
- ✓Strong absolute numbers in NoVA (still 32.5% of vote)
- ✓Solid growth in Richmond Metro and Hampton Roads
- ✗Slower growth in their core region (NoVA)
- ✗Rural surge closed the gap significantly
For Republicans:
- ✓Extraordinary growth in rural/exurban areas
- ✓Caught up significantly after trailing
- ✓High senior turnout in their regions
- ✗Still getting outvoted in absolute terms in NoVA/RVA
Bottom Line Assessment
This looks like a competitive race. The 2021 early vote figures came from Youngkin's victory year, and 2025 shows growth everywhere. The geographic distribution of growth (rural outpacing urban) combined with demographic patterns (older voters in rural areas) could favor Republicans, but Democrats' absolute advantages in population centers remain significant.
The "late surge" in rural areas closing the gap is clearly visible in the data - Southwest VA, Shenandoah, and exurban counties had the highest growth rates, which helped offset NoVA's slower growth.
- • 2021 data represents absentee/early ballots from the November 2021 General Election
- • 2025 data represents all early voting through the close of the early voting window
- • Regional classifications based on standard Virginia political geography
- • Percentages may not sum to exactly 100% due to rounding
- • "Other" category in voting method includes drop-off and other non-mail, non-in-person methods