Polymarket is pricing the Virginia gubernatorial race at 99% Democrat / 1% Republican. This analysis of comprehensive early vote data across five election cycles (2021, 2023, 2024, 2025 primaries, 2025 general) reveals this is likely the most mispriced political bet in recent history.
Key Findings:
- Republican counties systematically outperforming across all metrics
- Rural/exurban surge closing the gap on Northern Virginia
- Democratic "weekend catch-up" was insufficient - barely reached 2021 baseline
- GOP retained more 2024 voters than Democrats (66.3% vs 64.9%)
- Variance model shows R +3M weighted advantage over median performance
- NoVA weakness - Arlington, Fairfax underperforming state averages
Market Implication:
At 99-1 odds, even a 10% win probability makes this +EV. Data suggests 30-45% is realistic.
Section 1: The Complete Timeline
| Cycle | Election Type | Total Early Vote | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Gubernatorial (Youngkin Win) | 1,180,120 | Baseline |
| 2023 | Legislative | 929,697 | -21.2% |
| 2024 | Presidential (Trump-Harris) | 2,429,770 | +161.4% |
| 2025 R Primary | Primary | 22,000 | N/A |
| 2025 D Primary | Primary (Contested) | 333,670 | N/A |
| 2025 General | Gubernatorial (Current) | 1,596,307 | -34.4% vs 2024, +35.0% vs 2021 |
Critical Observation:
2025 is DOWN 34% from the 2024 presidential surge, but UP 35% from the 2021 gubernatorial race that Youngkin WON.
This is an off-year gubernatorial election, so the correct comparison is 2025 vs 2021, NOT 2025 vs 2024.
Section 2: The Party Breakdown
From 2021 baseline (last gubernatorial race):
- • R counties: +38.5% growth
- • D counties: +31.7% growth
- • R advantage: +6.8 percentage points
From 2024 (presidential) to 2025 (gubernatorial) retention:
- • R counties: 66.3% retained
- • D counties: 64.9% retained
- • R advantage: +1.4 percentage points
Republicans are not just growing - they're outgrowing Democrats AND retaining voters better in the transition from presidential to gubernatorial races.
Section 3: The Variance Model
- Calculate median early vote change across all counties (2025 vs 2021): +33.7%
- For each county, measure variance from median
- Aggregate variance scores by party (2021 results)
- Weight by 2025 early vote volume
Republican counties aren't just up - they're systematically overperforming expectations. The weighted variance advantage of 3 million points means that when you account for both the degree of overperformance AND the number of voters, Republicans have a massive momentum advantage.
14 of top 15 overperformers are Youngkin counties.
Arlington County - a major Democratic stronghold with 50,640 votes - is in the bottom 15 performers.
The Probability Estimate
Based on 2021 baseline, variance model, rural surge, and NoVA weakness - but Democrats still have volume advantage in population centers.
All data points favor Republicans. Campaign behavior suggests D internal polls are bad. Only question is whether Election Day changes calculus.
All data points favor Republicans, retention rates favor R, demographic composition favors R, historical patterns favor R.
At Conservative 30% Estimate:
- • True odds: 30% / 70% = 0.43 = $0.43 fair value
- • Market price: $0.04
- • Edge: $0.39 or 975% undervalued
At Aggressive 50% Estimate:
- • True odds: 50% / 50% = 1.00 = $0.50 fair value
- • Market price: $0.04
- • Edge: $0.46 or 1,150% undervalued
The Data Says:
- ✅Republicans systematically overperforming across all cycles and metrics
- ✅Rural surge is real and sustained (not a one-off)
- ✅NoVA weakness is measurable and persistent
- ✅Democrats barely exceeded 2021 baseline (which was a Republican win)
- ✅Campaign behavior indicates D concern (Obama/Shapiro deployment)
- ✅Variance model shows R +3M advantage
- ✅Retention rates favor Republicans (66.3% vs 64.9%)
The Market Says:
- ❌99% Democrat probability
- ❌1% Republican probability
- ❌$0.04 price for Republican win
The Conclusion:
This is either:
A) Historic Market Mispricing
The data clearly shows 30-45% R win probability being priced at 4%. This represents a massive arbitrage opportunity and will be studied as a case study in market failure driven by ideological capture.
B) The Data Is Meaningless
Early vote patterns, variance models, retention rates, campaign behavior, and historical baselines have zero predictive value, and Democrats will win in a landslide despite every indicator suggesting otherwise.
Occam's Razor strongly favors Option A.
Analysis completed November 4, 2025, 9:30 AM EST
All data sources: Virginia Department of Elections | Market data: Polymarket